Today is the ninth day of our annual Christmas Road Trip. Yesterday, Dad and I went to Fredericksburg, but otherwise we stayed close to home. When we returned to Jersey, VA, the weather was warm, cloudy, and breezy. I was thinking of going for a walk, but then it started to rain.
Today, we will mostly hang out in Jersey, VA. So far, it is cloudy this morning. It is a dismal day again.
The NWS in Sterling, VA, forecasts (for Jersey, VA) a cloudy day, with 40% chance of rain, and a high temperature of 43 F. Winds will be from the northeast at 10 mph. This evening will be cloudy, with a 30% chance of rain perhaps mixing to snow, but then tapering off in the early morning hours. The low temperature is predicted to be 29 F. The winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph, becoming 12-17 mph from the west, gusting to 32 mph.
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cool temperatures and moderate humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions). The skies are cloudy and the winds are from the southwest.
The HRRR simulated reflectivity doesn’t show a lot of precipitation in our region. However, there are a few strange anomalies in the output, such as the long, perfect arc through the south, and (in earlier scans) a perfect dividing line of deep precipitation over Lake Michigan. I don’t think the HRRR is handling the cold front very well.
The temperature will drop throughout the day, as the cold front approaches from the northwest.
Today will be a cold, rainy mess. I’m hoping for a dusting of snow tonight, just for a White Christmas, but I doubt it. I think it will be a damp, muddy Christmas here in Jersey, VA.
Thank you for reading my post.
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD