New Mexico Weather: 10/19/17

Yesterday was sunny, warm and still.  By the evening, the skies filled with high cirrus clouds.

This morning has been mostly cloudy, with a thin blanket of cirrus clouds covering most of the sky.  It was slightly warmer than yesterday, and also very still.

National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a mostly cloudy day, with a 40% chance of scattere showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 72 F.  The winds will be light and variable, becoming from the northwest at 5-10 mph in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms, patchy fog, and a low temperature of 49 F. Winds will be south at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a mostly cloudy day, with a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 67 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms, patchy fog, and a low temperature of 46 F. Winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) a partly sunny day, with a 20%chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 71 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.   This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 48 F. Winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook for their entire warning area concerning the scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.  Storms will be capable of gusty winds, small hail, and heavy downpours, particularly south of I-40.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Marginal Risk for southern New Mexico, including Las Cruces.

The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The infrared satellite imagery shows that some clouds have drifted into the state from the west.

The water vapor imagery shows that moisture has continued to advect into the state from the south and west.

The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows highly variable moisture, with several moisture peaks.   There was 0.50 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no of Convective Inhibition (CINH) present.  There was a broad thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 5.0 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 16 kt of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 22 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cool temperatures and low humidity, (based on the surface dewpoint depressions).  The winds are light, and the skies are clear over most of the state.

The surface pressure chart shows that there were no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state today.  The RAP shows little change over the next six hours, other than a slight pressure do to due to diurnal heating.

Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows light northerly flow.  There is a split-flow pattern, where the weaker, southernmost branch of the jetstream curves north through west Texas by this evening.

The 500 mb NAM chart shows no strong vorticity advection over the state today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The 700 mb NAM chart shows a few pockets of rapidly-rising air over the western half of the state today.

The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Precipitation chart shows that precipitation is expected over most of the state by 00 Z.

Today will be rainy and stormy for most of the state, especially south of I-40.  It will make things soggy today, but we will likely have a pleasant weekend.

Thank you for reading my post.

The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Local WX, Photography, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery and tagged , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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