Yesterday was sunny and warm, with a light breeze.
This morning has been sunny, cool and still. We had a clear sunrise this morning in Albuquerque.
National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 75 F. The winds will be from the west at 10-20 mph, becoming north this afternoon. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 38 F. Winds will be north at 15-20 mph, decreasing to 5-10 mph after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 66 F. The winds will be from the west at 15-20 mph. This evening will be clear, with a low temperature of 28 F. Winds will be from the northwest at 10-15 mph, decreasing to 5-10 mph after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 64 F. The winds will be from the west at 10-20 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 34 F. Winds will be from the northwest at 5-15 mph, becoming east after midnight.
The NWS has issued a Freeze Warning for much of the state for tomorrow night. Temperatures are expected to drop to freezing or near-freezing levels, even as far south as the Albuquerque Metro area starting tomorrow. Also, winds will be strong in the northeastern part of the state, and several inches of snow is possible at higher elevations in the northern part of the state. The Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:
The visible satellite imagery shows no clouds over the state so far this morning. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The infrared satellite imagery shows no thick clouds over the state this morning. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The water vapor imagery shows that some moisture has returned aloft.
The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a dry inverted-v pattern, with a little moisture aloft. There was 0.29 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no of Convective Inhibition (CINH) present. There was a small thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 7.1 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 30 kt of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 60 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to speed changes).
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cool temperatures and low humidity, (based on the surface dewpoint depressions). The winds are light, and the skies are clear over most of the state. Currently, there are no major frontal boundaries over the state, but two cold fronts are on their way.
The surface pressure chart shows that there is a strong pressure gradient approaching from the northeast as two cold fronts drift into the state and interact. The RAP shows this gradient increasing and the winds becoming strong over the next six hours, especially for the northeastern part of the state.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows strong northwesterly to zonal flow over the state today. As it turns out, the trough dipped deeper than I had expected, and will pass through the northern half of the state by 00 Z.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows some strong vorticity over the northern part of the state. It will help amplify convection ahead of the back door cold front, and help to generate snow for the higher elevations in the northern part of the state this afternoon and evening.
The 700 mb NAM chart is unavailable at this time.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows strong Cold Air Advection (CAA) into the state as two cold fronts merge and punch into the state from the north and northeast. This will increase wind speeds and drop temperatures significantly!
The Precipitation chart shows that snow will be possible in the northern tier of counties just behind the cold fronts.
Today will be a day of transition as unseasonably cold temperatures punch into the state by this afternoon. Depending on the location, temperatures will drop 10 F to 35 F throughout much of the state. Snow will be possible at the higher elevations in the northern part of the state, and windy, cold conditions will dominate the northeastern plains. Today will be interesting and unpleasant in many locations.
Thank you for reading my post.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD