New Mexico Weather: 10/4/17

Yesterday was sunny and warm.  By evening, clouds covered the sky.

This morning has cloudy, humid, and mild.  It did not cool off much last night, thanks to the cloud cover.

National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a mostly cloudy day, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 77 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 60 F. Winds will be from south at 5-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a mostly cloudy day, with a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 71 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, increasing to 10-15 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 56 F. Winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) a mostly cloudy, with a 70% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 73 F.  The winds will be from the east at 10 mph, becoming south in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 59 F. Winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning the strong to severe thunderstorms that will form through the central part of the state by this evening.  Large hail, heavy downpours, localized flash flooding and gusty winds will be the primary threats.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Marginal Risk for severe weather over the central part of the state, including most of the Albuquerque Metro area.  The primary threat will be large hail, as some of these storms may begin to rotate.

The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.

The infrared satellite imagery shows no thick clouds over the state this morning.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The water vapor imagery shows that some moisture has returned to the area this morning.

The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows that moisture has returned and nearly saturated the air in the 750 mb to 650 mb range.  Below this, there is an inverted v shape to the sounding.   There was 1.05 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was 588 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -96 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH) present.  There was no thermal inversion, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 8.3 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 20 kt of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 58 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to speed changes).  All of this led to a Supercell Parameter of 3.4.

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures, moderate to high humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions).  The winds are light, and the skies are cloudy over most of the state.

The surface pressure chart shows that we are under no strong pressure system, though there is a moderate pressure gradient over most of the state this morning.  The RAP shows that the pressure gradient will decrease over the next six hours.

Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows strong southwesterly flow from the lower branch of the jetstream.

The 500 mb NAM chart shows no strong vorticity advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The 700 mb NAM chart shows several pockets of weakly-rising air.  The coverage is broader, but the pockets are not as strong as yesterday.

The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Precipitation chart shows that is some rain possible in most of the state by 00Z.

Today will be an interesting day.  If I was chasing today, I’d stay home in Rio Rancho.  I sent a message home to make sure the coaxial cable and antenna is unplugged from the amateur radio equipment, as I think there will be storms at home today.

Given the ample shear and moisture, as well as the adequate CAPE, I am thinking we will see some severe storms.  Tornadoes are not listed as a threat, but they weren’t on Saturday, either.  I might argue that today’s conditions are much better for severe weather than Saturday’s conditions.  I think the cloud cover last night prevented some of the radiational cooling that the models predicted, meaning we started today at a warmer temperature than expected.

This morning in Socorro felt like a stormy day.  Sticky and warm.  I will be watching RadarScope all day.

Thank you for reading my post.

The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Follow Up, Local WX, Photography, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery, Severe Weather and tagged , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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