New Mexico Weather: 10/3/17

Yesterday was a breezy, sunny and warm day in Socorro.  The winds decreased in the evening, and the skies remained clear.

This morning has sunny, clear and a bit cool.

National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 83 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, increasing to 10-15 mph by the afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 57F. Winds will be from south at 5-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 77 F. The winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 53 F. Winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 80 F.  The winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph, becoming south in the afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 57 F. Winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning a weak back door cold front that will work its way into the state from the northeast.  This, plus a series of minor disturbances along the jetstream will increase the potential for rain and showers.  Storms are expected to remain below severe limits this evening.

Soon after I started writing this post, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued a Marginal Risk for severe weather over the east central part of the state, including Roswell and Tucumcari.

Associated with the Marginal Risk is a 2% Tornado Threat ring.

The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.

The infrared satellite imagery shows no thick clouds over the state this morning.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The water vapor imagery shows that this strong jetstream from the southwest is bringing dry air aloft.

The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows that dry air persists at all levels of the atmosphere this morning.   There was 0.31 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH) present.  There was a large thermal inversion, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 4.7 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 18 kt of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 38 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cool temperatures, with low humidity in the west, and high humidity in the east (based on the surface dewpoint depressions).  The winds are light, and the skies are clear.  There is a dryline that runs through the eastern third of the state this morning.

The surface pressure chart shows that we are under lower pressure this morning, but with no strong pressure gradients.  The RAP shows that the pressure will decrease over the next six hours, with no strong gradients developing in that time.

Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows strong southwesterly flow from the lower branch of the jetstream.  The phased jetstreams have drifted north, keeping the closed, upper-level low over Nevada, and giving us a southwesterly flow regime.

The 500 mb NAM chart shows no strong vorticity advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The 700 mb NAM chart shows two small pockets of rapidly-rising air; one of these is over the Bootheel region and the other is over Santa Fe.

The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Precipitation chart shows that is some rain possible in the eastern third of the state by 00 Z.

The Marginal Risk is an interesting development.  My day is too packed to spend a lot of time analyzing it, and I certainly am not going chasing today.  Given the nearly-adequate shear profiles, lift ahead of the back door cold front, and strong diurnal heating (due to the clear skies), I could see where storms are possible today.  While the moisture is limited in Albuquerque, there is a dryline farther east, with ample moisture on the wet side.

If I were chasing today, I would target somewhere between Santa Rosa and Roswell.

Thank you for reading my post.

The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Follow Up, Local WX, Photography, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery, Severe Weather and tagged , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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