Yesterday was a pleasant day in Rio Rancho. Showers threatened on several occasions, but we never had them. There were a few cool breezes from nearby showers, however, and I welcomed them with open arms to cool off a bit.
This morning has been mostly sunny, still and mild. There were a few clouds in the sky, including these over the Sandias at sunrise.
National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 88 F. The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph, becoming east in the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 65 F. Winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph, becoming north after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 82 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph, becoming east in the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 57 F. Winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph, becoming southwest after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) a mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 89 F. The winds will be from the northeast at 5-10 mph, becoming southeast by this afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 62 F. Winds will be from the east at 5-15 mph.
The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning the potential for a few heavy showers and thunderstorms over the high terrain. The biggest threat with these storms is the heavy rains and potential for flooding, though small hail and gusty downdraft winds are also possible. Coverage will be lighter today than yesterday.
The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.
The infrared satellite imagery shows a few spots where yesterday’s showers have left a few thicker clouds.
The water vapor imagery shows that there has been some moisture return overnight.
The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows that the atmosphere has dried out compared to last week, with only moderately humid conditions below 500 mb. There was 0.82 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was 143 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -400 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH) present. There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.9 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 14 kt of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 23 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to directional changes).
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures and high humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions). The skies are clear in most locations, and the winds are light. There are no major frontal boundaries over the state so far this morning.
The surface pressure chart shows that we are under a slightly higher pressure, but with no strong pressure gradients The RAP shows that the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, but no strong gradients are expected to develop over the next six hours.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows a little northerly flow aloft.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows no strong vorticity advection. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart is unavailable at this time.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows weak Cold Air Advection (CAA) into the eastern part of the state. As Tropical Cyclone Harvey continues to affect Texas and Louisiana, the counterclockwise winds are advecting moisture and colder air from the plains eastward into the Panhandles Region and eastern New Mexico.
The Precipitation chart shows that rain is possible for a stripe of land through the middle of the state, crossing the Rio Grande River Valley near the Albuquerque Metro area.
I expect today will be pleasant in the Rio Grande River Valley, though rain will be possible once again today. Already, there is more cloud cover this morning than there was yesterday morning, and the precipitable water is a little higher as well. Given the little bit of CAA, it wouldn’t surprise me to see showers and thunderstorms for much of the state by this afternoon.
Thank you for reading my post.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD