Yesterday, the weather was warm, humid, and partly cloudy.
This morning has been mild, still, and mostly cloudy. There was a blanket of clouds over Rio Rancho this morning.
National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a partly sunny day, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 89 F. The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph, becoming south in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 67 F. Winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a mostly cloudy day, with a 70% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 82 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph, becoming south in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 60 F. Winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) partly sunny day, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 91 F. The winds will be west at 5-10 mph in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 65 F. Winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph, becoming north after midnight.
The NWS has also issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning heavy rains along and east of the central mountain chain. Flash flooding is possible, given the damp soil and humid conditions. Also, storms that form will have the potential to produce large hail, gusty winds and frequent cloud to ground lightning.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Slight Risk for the northeastern corner of the state.
There is also a 2% Tornado Threat Ring associated with the Slight Risk.
The visible satellite imagery show plenty of clouds over the central part of the state.
The infrared satellite imagery shows no really thick clouds, but some of them are moderately thick.
The water vapor imagery shows deep moisture, some of which is swirling around Clovis.
The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a nearly-saturated atmosphere. There was 1.04 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was 1104 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -137 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH) present. There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.8 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 13 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 21 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to speed changes).
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures and high humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions). The skies are cloudy over the northeastern corner of the state, and the winds are light at this time. There are no major frontal boundaries over the state so far this morning.
The surface pressure chart shows no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state so far this morning. The RAP shows that the pressure will drop, and that a 1006 mb low pressure system will develop over central New Mexico in the next six hours.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows zonal flow over the state today.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows no strong vorticity advection over the state today. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart is unavailable at this time.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows some weak Cold Air Advection (CAA) pushing into the very northeastern corner of the state today.
The Precipitation chart shows that rain is likely over most of the state today.
Today, I am seriously debating driving to Clayton ahead of the thunderstorms that will form today. Showers and thunderstorms are likely across much of the state today.
Thank you for reading my post.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD