Yesterday, the weather was warm and partly cloudy through the Rio Grande River Valley. There was plenty of rain in Rio Rancho, Albuquerque, and along a car ride to Los Alamos, with water pooling in the low-lying areas.
This morning has been mild, still, and party sunny. The sun rose through scattered clouds again this morning.
National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a partly sunny day, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 87 F. The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph, becoming south in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 67 F. Winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a partly sunny day, with a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 79 F. The winds will be from the north at 5 mph, becoming east in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 61 F. Winds will be from the west at 10 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) partly sunny day, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 87 F. The winds will be light and variable, becoming west at 5-10 mph in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 65 F. Winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph, becoming east after midnight.
The NWS has also issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning heavy rains along and east of the central mountain chain. Flash flooding is possible, given the damp soil and humid conditions. Also, storms that form will have the potential to produce large hail, gusty winds and frequent cloud to ground lightning.
The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.
The infrared satellite imagery shows a few thicker clouds in the southeastern corner of the state this morning. These clouds are mixing out and moving out of the state.
The water vapor imagery shows deep moisture, some of which is swirling around Clovis.
The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a nearly-saturated atmosphere. There was 1.25 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was 588 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -17 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH) present. There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 5.7 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 3 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 15 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to speed changes).
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures and high humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions). The skies are cloudy over much of the state, and the winds are light at this time. The Doppler RADAR indicates that there are still a few lingering showers in the southeast that are weakening and moving out of the state. There are no major frontal boundaries over the state so far this morning.
The surface pressure chart shows high pressure (1020 mb) over the northeastern corner of the state, and a slight pressure gradient through the north. The RAP shows that the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, and the pressure gradient will weaken over the next six hours.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows zonal flow over the state today.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows no strong vorticity advection over the state today. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart is unavailable at this time.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Precipitation chart shows that rain is likely over most of the state today.
Today, there is significant moisture. It is probably not a record, but 1.25 inches of precipitable water is about as high as I have recorded on this blog. I expect there will be showers and thunderstorms today, where heavy rains and flooding are possible.
Thank you for reading my post.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD