New Mexico Weather: 8/11/17

Yesterday, the weather was warm and partly cloudy through the Rio Grande River Valley.  We had a few nearby storms and some light rain in Socorro yesterday afternoon.

This morning has been mild, still, and party sunny.  The sun rose through scattered clouds again this morning.

National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 89 F.  The winds will be from the northeast at 5-10 mph, becoming south in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 68 F. Winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph, becoming south after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a partly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 82 F. The winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 61 F. Winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming north after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) partly sunny day, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 87 F. The winds will be from the northeast at 5 mph, becoming south in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 64 F. Winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph, becoming northeast after midnight.

The NWS has also issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning heavy rains along and east of the central mountain chain.  Flash flooding is possible, given the damp soil and humid conditions.  Also, storms that form will have the potential to produce large hail, gusty winds and frequent cloud to ground lightning.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Marginal Risk for severe weather that includes the northeastern corner of the state today.

The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.

The infrared satellite imagery shows a few thicker clouds in the western half of the state this morning.

The water vapor imagery shows uniform, deep moisture has returned to the state.

The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a nearly-saturated atmosphere, though the sounding does have a bit of an inverted v type shape.  There was 1.14 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was 113 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -254 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH) present.  There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 7.7 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 14 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 30 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures and high humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions).  The skies are clear and the winds are light at this time.  There are no major frontal boundaries over the state so far this morning.

The surface pressure chart shows high pressure (1020 mb) over the northeastern corner of the state, and a slight pressure gradient through the north.   The RAP shows that the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, and the pressure gradient will weaken over the next six hours.

Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows zonal flow over the state today.

The 500 mb NAM chart shows no strong vorticity advection over the state today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The 700 mb NAM chart shows that there will be several large pockets of rapidly-rising air over the state today.

The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Precipitation chart shows that rain is possible over most of the state today, particularly over the western half of the state.

Today, there is significant moisture aloft.  Given the moderate lapse rates, and the ample moisture, showers and thunderstorms are likely today.  Deep-layer shear is below what would be expected for supercells, but strong to borderline storms are possible, with large hail, heavy downpours and gusty winds (given the inverted v sounding) are the most likely threats.

Thank you for reading my post.

The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Local WX, Photography, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery, Severe Weather and tagged , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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