Yesterday, the weather was warm and sunny in the Rio Grande River Valley. There were storms east of the central mountain chain, and there was at least one tornado warning issued, but it was not confirmed.
This morning has been mild, still, and party sunny. There was a pretty sunrise this morning, thanks to the scattered clouds:
National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 91 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 67 F. Winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming northwest after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a partly sunny day, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 84 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 61 F. Winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 93 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 5 mph, becoming southwest in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 67 F. Winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph, becoming southwest after midnight.
The NWS has also issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning heavy rains along and east of the central mountain chain. Flash flooding is possible, given the damp soil and humid conditions. Also, storms that form will have the potential to produce large hail, gusty winds and frequent cloud to ground lightning.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Marginal Risk for severe weather that includes the very northeastern corner of the state today.
The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.
The infrared satellite imagery shows a few thicker clouds in the southern half of the state this morning.
The water vapor imagery shows deep moisture in the southern part of the state.
The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a moderately humid boundary layer, but dry air above 500 mb. The sounding does have a bit of an inverted v type shape. There was 0.88 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was 264 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -338 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH) present. There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 7.1 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 10 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 18 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to speed changes).
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures and high humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions). The skies are clear and the winds are light at this time. There are no major frontal boundaries over the state so far this morning.
The surface pressure chart shows no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state so far this morning The RAP shows that none are expected for at least the next six hours.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows zonal flow over the state today.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows no strong vorticity advection over the state today. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows that there will be several large pockets of rapidly-rising air over the state today.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Precipitation chart shows that rain is possible over most of the state today.
Today will be similar to yesterday: hot, sunny, and still. However, the chances of rain are much higher today, with the rapidly-rising air over the central part of the state and the return of moisture, as shown on the water vapor imagery.
The northeastern corner of the state may also face a severe weather threat today. Notice that the Slight Risk (and 2% Tornado Threat Ring) is just barely touching our border; this threat area may shift a bit throughout the day.
Thank you for reading my post.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD