Yesterday, the weather was warm and sunny. In the evening, there were storms (including a few severe storms) east of the central mountain chain, though we could only see the tops of them from I-25 and the Albuquerque Metro area.
This morning has been mild, still, and clear. There was a cloudless sky to my east along my commute through Albuquerque this morning:
National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 93 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a low temperature of 68 F. Winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 87 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 62 F. Winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 95 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 5 mph, becoming southwest in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a low temperature of 66 F. Winds will be from the southeast at 5 mph, becoming southwest after midnight.
The NWS has also issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning heavy rains along and east of the central mountain chain. Flash flooding is possible, given the damp soil and humid conditions. Also, storms that form will have the potential to produce large hail, gusty winds and frequent cloud to ground lightning. There is also a Flash Flood Watch, and Flash Flood Warning near Clovis. The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Marginal Risk for severe weather that includes the very northeastern corner of the state today.
The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.
The infrared satellite imagery shows that there are no thick convective clouds at this time. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The water vapor imagery shows that dry air aloft over the entire state again today.
The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a moderately humid boundary layer, but dry air above 500 mb. The sounding does have a bit of an inverted v type shape. There was 0.73 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was 436 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -236 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH) present. There was a small thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 7.2 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 8 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 29 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to speed changes).
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures and high humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions). The skies are clear and the winds are light at this time. There are no major frontal boundaries over the state so far this morning.
The surface pressure chart shows no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state so far this morning The RAP shows that none are expected for at least the next six hours.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows zonal flow over the state today.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows no strong vorticity advection over the state today. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows no large pockets of rapidly-rising air. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Precipitation chart shows that rain is possible in a few areas, but that coverage and amount of precipitation are reduced as compared to yesterday.
Today will be similar to yesterday: hot, sunny, and still. The air is a bit less humid, so I am expecting an even smaller chance of rain, as compared to yesterday. Today will be a good day to finish moving equipment across campus.
Thank you for reading my post.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD