Yesterday, the weather was warm and partly cloudy in Rio Rancho. There were areas of heavy rain, but we only received a few sprinkles of rain off and on. I went for a run, and then worked in the garden, and ended up with a light sunburn. There was a nice sunset over Rio Rancho last evening as well:
This morning has been mild, still, and mostly sunny. There was a nice sunrise this morning over the Sandias.
National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 92 F. The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph, becoming southeast in the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 66 F. Winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 85 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph, becoming east by the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 59 F. Winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph, becoming northwest after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 90 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph, becoming southwest in the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 65 F. Winds will be from the southwest at 10-15 mph, becoming east after midnight.
The NWS has also issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning heavy rains along and east of the central mountain chain. Flash flooding is possible, given the damp soil and humid conditions.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Marginal Risk for severe weather that covers a swath through the eastern part of the state.
The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.
The infrared satellite imagery shows that there are no thick convective clouds at this time.
The water vapor imagery shows that drier air moved in yesterday and last night.
The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a humid boundary layer, but dry air above 500 mb. There was 0.99 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was 365 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -224 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH) present. There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.7 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 12 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 38 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to speed changes).
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures and high humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions). The skies are clear in most locations, and the winds are light. There are no major frontal boundaries over the state so far this morning. There is a cluster of storms in southwestern Kansas near the next back door cold front.
The surface pressure chart shows that there are no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state this morning. The RAP shows that none are expected to develop over the next six hours.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows zonal flow over the state today.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows no strong vorticity advection over the state today. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows no large pockets of rapidly-rising air. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows another back door cold front entering the state from the northeast again today. The thermal gradient is sharper today than it was yesterday, indicating stronger Cold Air Advection (CAA).
The Precipitation chart shows that rain is possible again, particularly over the eastern half of the state, ahead of the back door cold front.
The CAPE is much lower, and the CINH much higher than yesterday. I am not expecting a big storm outbreak over the Albuquerque Metro area. There will be some storms in the northeastern corner of the state ahead of yet another back door cold front, however.
Today will be warm, with a few clouds, light winds and will be a pleasant day. I will end up spending all of today in meetings, just because it is nice outside.
Thank you for reading my post.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD