Yesterday, the weather was warm, sunny, humid and still in the morning, and then turned to rain in the afternoon. I was looking for parts at the junkyard, and watched this shower move towards me. And, by towards me, I mean soak me a few minutes later. I didn’t care though, I was having fun running around in the junkyard, and the rain kept it cool instead of hot, like it was when I arrived earlier in the afternoon.
This morning has been mild, still, and mostly sunny. There are a few cumulus clouds to my west.
National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a partly sunny day, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 91 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming northwest in the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 66 F. Winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a partly sunny day, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 84 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming northwest in the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 60 F. Winds will be from the northwest at 10 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) partly sunny day, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 90 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming west in the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 65 F. Winds will be from the northwest at 10-15 mph, decreasing to 5-10 mph after midnight.
The NWS has also issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning the heavy rains, small hail, and gusty winds that will be possible everywhere in the state, though the favored location is in the northern part of the state. Flash flooding will be possible with the showers and thunderstorms that form today, given the humid air and damp soil.
The visible satellite imagery shows clouds left-over from yesterdays showers and thunderstorms. The satellite imagery loop shows that these clouds are mixing out and their coverage is decreasing.
The infrared satellite imagery shows that there are no thick convective clouds at this time. Some of the left-over material is thicker, but it is mixing out.
The water vapor imagery shows nearly-uniform moisture over the state today. Notice the dry area behind the cold front over the east coast.
The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a really humid atmosphere. There was 1.12 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was 1024 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -60 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH) present. There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.7 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 14 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 19 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to speed changes).
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures and high humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions). The skies are clear in most locations, and the winds are light. There are no major frontal boundaries over the state so far this morning.
The surface pressure chart shows that there is a low pressure system over the NM/CO border this morning, with a weak pressure gradient circling this system. The RAP shows that the pressure will drop everywhere with diurnal heating, but the gradient will remain weak over the next six hours.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows zonal flow over the state today.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows no strong vorticity advection over the state today. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows no large pockets of rapidly-rising air. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Precipitation chart shows that rain is possible again, over most of the state by this afternoon.
Given the high CAPE and ample moisture, I think the chances of showers and thunderstorms will be greater than expected in the predictions. The early morning clouds are mixing out, but it is only allowing for stronger diurnal heating, and given this moist, energetic environment, I would venture that there will be showers and thunderstorms today in most of the northern half of the state.
Thank you for reading my post.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD