Yesterday, the weather was warm, sunny, humid and still. I moved some lab equipment in the morning, and spent a few hours outdoors.
This morning has been mild, still, and clear. The skies were mostly clear.
National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 94 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 65 F. Winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 86 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 60 F. Winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming northwest after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 92 F. The winds will be from the northeast at 5-10 mph, becoming southwest in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 66 F. Winds will be from the east at 10 mph.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Marginal Risk for the pre-frontal area in the northeastern corner of the state.
The NWS has also issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning the strength of storms that will form ahead of a back door cold front this afternoon. Gusty downburst winds and hail up to the size of inch are possible with these storms.
The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.
The infrared satellite imagery shows a few scattered high clouds over the state this morning, though none are very thick.
The water vapor imagery shows nearly-uniform moisture over the state today, as yesterday’s dry air mixed out and moved southeast.
The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a really humid atmosphere. There was 0.83 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH) present. There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.9 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 16 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 18 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to speed changes).
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures and high humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions). The skies are clear in most locations, and the winds are light. There are no major frontal boundaries present, though a back door cold front is expected to enter the state from the northeast this afternoon.
The surface pressure chart shows that there is a high pressure system over the NM/CO border this morning, with no strong pressure gradients over the state, so far this morning. The RAP shows that none are expected to develop in the next six hours.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows northwesterly to zonal flow over the state today, as air aloft is deflected around a trough to our east.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows no strong vorticity advection over the state today. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows no large pockets of rapidly-rising air. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows the back door cold front moving into the northeastern corner of the state by 00 Z. It shows up in this graphic as Cold Air Advection (CAA), where the wind blows against the thermal gradient from cool to warm.
The Precipitation chart shows that rain is unlikely for most of the state today. A few areas may receive some isolated showers and thunderstorms, but coverage will be limited.
In my longer term forecast a few days ago, the back door cold fronts were a little weaker, and I expected clear, storm-free weather. Oops. Looks like this front will be strong enough to drum up some showers and marginally severe thunderstorms.
Thank you for reading my post.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD