Long Range Forecasting: 8/1/17-8/8/17

It is time to look ahead at the long range forecast, as told by the GFS model.

The next week will be warm, though precipitation is possible most days this week.  The chances of rain and the severity of rainfall are lower this week, as compared to the past month.

The 300 mb GFS shows southwesterly flow at the beginning of this week, as a trough digs in through the Ohio River Valley.  This southwesterly flow is replaced by weak, zonal flow by this weekend.

The 850 mb GFS charts show that the temperature will be warm over the next week.  The closest we have to Cold Air Advection (CAA) occurs Thursday morning, and does not go far enough south or west to significantly affect us here in New Mexico.

The Precipitation charts show that there are chances of precipitation over the Rio Grande River Valley a few days this week, though conditions will be drier than they have been for the past month.  The next few days have lower chances and smaller amounts of rain;  Friday morning has the greatest potential for heavy rain.

New Mexico will be hot, with weak winds and possible showers and thunderstorms on most days, though the chances and amount of rainfall are smaller than last week.   Shear will remain weak through this week, limiting the severe storm potential.

Thank you for reading my post.

GFS Model Data is from Unisys Weather

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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