Yesterday, the weather threatened to rain at any moment in Socorro, but didn’t through 5:30 pm (when I left town). We ran through several bands of strong showers commuting to Belen. When I arrived in Albuquerque in the evening, the streets were quite wet, so there had been some heavy rain. Here is one of the storms that was developing over Socorro Peak (M-Mountain):
This morning has been mild, still, and mostly cloudy. I did get to see the sunset over the Sandias this morning.
National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a mostly cloudy day, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 85 F. The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph, becoming east in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 64 F. Winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph, becoming northeast after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a mostly cloudy day, with a 70% chance of showers and thunderstorms, dropping to a 20% chance by the afternoon, and a high temperature of 77 F. The winds will be from the northeast at 5 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with an 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 59 F. Winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph, becoming northeast after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) partly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 87 F. The winds will be from the northeast at 5 mph, becoming southeast in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 63 F. Winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph.
The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning the storm coverage today. There are several Flash Flood Watches in place, as shown by the NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:
The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.
The infrared satellite imagery shows a few thicker clouds, including the ongoing Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) in the southeastern part of the state.
The water vapor imagery shows nearly-uniform, ample deep moisture over the state this morning.
The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a really humid atmosphere. There was 1.12 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was 131 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -90 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH) present. There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.3 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 11 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 10 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to directional changes).
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures and high humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions). The skies are cloudy in most locations, and the winds are light. There are a few ongoing showers and thunderstorms showing up on Doppler RADAR moving out of the state to the southeast. There are no major frontal boundaries present.
The surface pressure chart shows that there is a high pressure system over the NM/CO border this morning, with no strong pressure gradients over the state, so far this morning. The RAP shows that none are expected to develop in the next six hours.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows moderate zonal flow as a jetstreak exits the state today.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows no strong vorticity advection over the state today. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows no large pockets of rapidly-rising air. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The Precipitation chart shows that rain is likely for most of the state today.
Today, I expect some rain and thunderstorms in the Rio Grande River Valley. Coverage does not appear to be as widespread as yesterday, but storms that do form will produce heavy rains.
Thank you for reading my post.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD