Yesterday, we ran into off-and-on bands of rain, starting near the TX/NM border. We were able to unload the car in Rio Rancho in dry weather, thankfully. In one clearing, we could see the back end of a few of the storms, complete with a rainbow.
This morning has been mild, still, and mostly cloudy. I did get to see the sunset over the Sandias this morning.
National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a partly sunny day, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 89 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5 mph, becoming southeast in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 69 F. Winds will be from the south at 5 mph, becoming north after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a mostly cloudy day, with a 70% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 81 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 5 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with an 80% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 61 F. Winds will be from the south at 5 mph, becoming northeast after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) partly sunny day, with a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 88 F. The winds will be from the northeast at 5 mph, becoming southwest in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 70% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 65 F. Winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph.
The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning the storm coverage today. They have already issued several Flash Flood Watches and more will be put in place this afternoon. The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:
The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.
The infrared satellite imagery shows a few thicker clouds, including the ongoing Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) in the southeastern part of the state.
The water vapor imagery shows nearly-uniform, ample deep moisture over the state this morning.
The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a really humid atmosphere. There was 1.20 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was 593 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -99 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH) present. There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.3 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 6 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 9 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to speed changes).
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures and high humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions). The skies are mostly clear, and the winds are light. There are a few ongoing showers and thunderstorms showing up on Doppler RADAR along the eastern border with Texas. There are no major frontal boundaries present.
The surface pressure chart shows that we are under a slight high pressure system, with no strong pressure gradients over the state, so far this morning. The RAP shows that none are expected to develop in the next six hours.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows weak southwesterly flow aloft as we begin to exit through the western edge of a low-amplitude ridge.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows no strong vorticity advection over the state today. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows no large pockets of rapidly-rising air. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows some weak Cold Air Advection (CAA) moving into the eastern plains of New Mexico by this afternoon. The thermal gradient is moderate, and the winds light, but there is some cooler air moving into this area.
The Precipitation chart shows that rain is likely for most of the state today.
Today, I expect more rain and thunderstorms in the Rio Grande River Valley. I set up a battery charger on one of my cars (Malibu), and then went to work. That might have been a mistake. I bet I have a tripped breaker when I get home.
Thank you for reading my post.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD