Long Range Forecasting: 7/25/17-8/1/17

It is time to look ahead at the long range forecast, as told by the GFS model.

The next week will be hot, though precipitation is possible most days this week.  It is pretty much a repeat of last week, and I am changing very little (again this week!)

The 300 mb GFS shows weak zonal to no flow aloft almost the entire week.  There will be an upper-level high pressure system parked over the state this week, and most of the stronger flow will go north of this high pressure system.

The 850 mb GFS charts show that the temperature will be warm over the next week.  The closest we have to cooler air pokes in from the northeast in the early morning hours on Friday.  However, it barely qualifies as a back door cold front, and, according to the GFS, will be short-lived.

The Precipitation charts show that there are chances of precipitation over the Rio Grande River Valley most days over the next week.  By next Tuesday evening, we may start to see slightly lower chances of rain for a few days, though that will be covered in next week’s post.

New Mexico will be hot, with weak winds and possible showers and thunderstorms on most days.   Shear will remain weak through this week, limiting the severe storm potential.

Thank you for reading my post.

GFS Model Data is from Unisys Weather

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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