Tropical Update: 7/21/17

It is time for another tropical update.

In the Atlantic and Caribbean, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is not anticipating any tropical storms over the next 48 hours.

In the Eastern Pacific, there is quite a bit of activity.  There is one Tropical Storm, one Tropical Depression, and one area of potential development.

Tropical Storm Greg is over the open ocean, but has 50 mph sustained winds and a central low pressure of 1001 mb.  The forecast discussion shows that it is fighting vertical wind shear and is expected to weaken by Day 3.

Tropical Depression Nine-E has 35 mph sustained winds, with a central low pressure of 1006 mb.  The forecast discussion shows that intensification is likely with this system, as it enters an area of warm sea-surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear.  However, the models differ on when this intensification will happen.

The third area is in between Tropical Storm Greg and Tropical Depression Nine-E, and has an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression in the next 48 hours, and a 90% chance in the next five days.

The infrared imagery over the Eastern Pacific shows the chain of activity.  While none of it is very organized at this time, rapid intensification is possible.

The Central Pacific has several threats at this time as well.

Tropical Depression Fernanda is moving west, approaching Hawaii.  It has weakened from its hurricane state, and is expected to remain weak, given the 25 C sea-surface temperatures and 30-35 kts of deep-layer shear.

Tropical Storm Kulap is west of Hawaii, and has sustained winds of 35 mph.  It is currently struggling with some modest wind shear (15-20 kts), and will likely continue to weaken.

Thank you for reading my post.

References:
Satellite Imagery: NOAA – Satellite and Information Services
Hurricane Data:  National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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