Yesterday was mostly sunny in Rio Rancho. There was a threat of rain off and on, but none fell in Rio Rancho. We sat outside on the porch in pleasant weather late last evening, and watched the International Space Station (ISS) during a pass overhead.
This morning has been warm, still and sunny. There are virtually no clouds this morning.
National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a partly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 90 F. The winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 66 F. Winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a partly sunny day, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms high temperature of 84 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 10-15 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 61 F. Winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph, becoming west after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 93 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 69 F. Winds will be from the southeast at 5-15 mph.
The NWS has issued a hazardous weather outlook concerning the storm coverage today. There will be a few storms, some of them producing torrential rain and flooding. The flooding potential is due to the damp atmosphere and the slow storm motion. A few of the stronger storms may produce penny-sized hail and gusty winds. The NWS has also issued several flash flood watches for areas that have already received heavy rains:
The visible satellite imagery shows that there are clouds over the southern half of the state this morning, though the Albuquerque Metro area has clear skies.
The infrared satellite imagery shows that these clouds are not very thick.
The water vapor imagery shows that the air is almost uniformly damp across the entire state this morning.
The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a humid atmosphere again this morning. There was 1.00 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was 341 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -212 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH) present. There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.5 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 3 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 7 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to directional changes).
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures and moderately-high humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions). The skies are mostly clear, and the winds are light. There are no major frontal boundaries present.
The surface pressure chart shows no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state, so far this morning. The RAP shows that the pressure is expected to drop, statewide, with diurnal heating, over the next six hours. No strong pressure gradients are expected to develop.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows weak flow aloft over the state today.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows no strong vorticity advection over the state today. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows no large pockets of rapidly-rising air. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows no major thermal advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Precipitation chart shows that rain is possible, particularly in the southern part of the state today.
Today, there will be showers and storms over most of the state. There is ample moisture and diurnal heating. As for me, I will be headed east on a road trip to Illinois. I haven’t planned my exact route, but we will be leaving the Southwestern Monsoon for the Heartland’s Dog Days of Summer.
Thank you for reading my post.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD
High Plains Chasing 