Yesterday threatened showers and thunderstorms all day in Rio Rancho, yet we received none. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) did have one severe wind report (62 mph), two miles west of Socorro.
This morning has been warm, still and mostly sunny. There were only a few light clouds at sunrise this morning.
National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 92 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 66 F. Winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a mostly sunny day, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms high temperature of 85 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 60 F. Winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 93 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 68 F. Winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph.
The NWS has issued a hazardous weather outlook concerning the storm coverage today. There will be numerous storms, some of them producing torrential rain and perhaps some minor flooding.
The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.
The infrared satellite imagery shows no thick clouds over the state this morning. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The water vapor imagery shows deep, nearly uniform moisture over the state this morning.
The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a really humid atmosphere. There was 1.14 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was 404 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -211 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH) present. There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.7 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 11 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 16 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to directional changes).
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show warm temperatures and moderately-high humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions). The skies are mostly clear, and the winds are light. There are no major frontal boundaries present.
The surface pressure chart shows no major pressure systems or gradients over the state this morning. The RAP shows that none are expected to develop in the next six hours, though the pressure is expected to decrease everywhere with diurnal heating.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows weak flow aloft over the state today.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows that there is no strong vorticity advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows no large pockets of rapidly-rising air. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows some weak Cold Air Advection (CAA) into the southeastern corner of the state. More importantly, this is showing some low-level moisture advection.
The Precipitation chart shows that rain will be possible by 0 Z, over most of the state today.
Today, there is even more moisture present in the atmosphere. I think there will be showers and thunderstorms scattered all over the state, and, given he sounding profile, storms that form will produce heavy rains.
Tomorrow I start a semi-normal routine again, so my weather post will be earlier in the day again.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD