Yesterday was mostly sunny and hot. In the evening, there were a few showers and thunderstorms in the Albuquerque area. We went to dinner with outdoor seating and were thankful that there was a canopy over our heads.
This morning has been warm, still and mostly sunny. There were a few storms already firing in the distance:
National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a partly sunny day, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 89 F. The winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 65 F. Winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a partly sunny day, with a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms high temperature of 82 F. The winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 60 F. Winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) partly sunny day, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 89 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 40% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 66 F. Winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.
The NWS has issued a hazardous weather outlook concerning the storms that will form today. They will have gusty winds, hail to the size of pennies, and heavy rainfall. Given the slow movement of these storms, there is a potential for flash flooding near the storms that are producing heavy rainfall. They have also issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for a cell west of Los Alamos, as shown in the graphic below:
The visible satellite imagery shows quite a few storms popping in a healthy cumulus field that has developed over most of the state today.
The infrared satellite imagery shows that a few of the storms have higher, cooler tops.
The water vapor imagery shows deep, nearly uniform moisture over the state this morning.
The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a really humid atmosphere. There was 1.10 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was 445 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -66 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH) present. There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.6 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 3 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 16 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to directional changes).
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show warm temperatures and moderately-high humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions). The skies are mostly clear, and the winds are light. There are no major frontal boundaries present.
The surface pressure chart shows no major pressure systems or gradients over the state this morning. The RAP shows that none are expected to develop in the next six hours.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows that an upper-level high pressure system has formed over the southwest. Flow aloft is weak.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows that there is no strong vorticity advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows no large pockets of rapidly-rising air. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Precipitation chart shows that rain will be possible by 0 Z, over most of the state today.
Today, there will be a few more showers and thunderstorms. This will hopefully help out my garden. I will watch the storms as they develop today, as we already have a few that are firing, including one severe storm.
Tomorrow I start a semi-normal routine again, so my weather post will be earlier in the day again.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD