New Mexico Weather: 7/15/17

Yesterday was mostly sunny and hot.  I did some errands around town.  In the evening, I caught these rays looking away from the sunset:

This morning has been warm, still and mostly sunny.  There were a few cumulus clouds developing over Rio Rancho this morning:

National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 92 F.  The winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 65 F. Winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a mostly sunny day, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms high temperature of 85 F. The winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 61 F. Winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph, becoming south after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 92 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 67 F. Winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph.

The NWS has issued a hazardous weather outlook concerning the storms that will form today.  They will have gusty winds, hail to the size of pennies, and heavy rainfall.  Given the slow movement of these storms, there is a potential for flash flooding near the storms that are producing heavy rainfall.

The visible satellite imagery shows some clouds left-over from yesterday’s convection, as well as some new embedded morning convection along the northern and southern parts of the state.

The infrared satellite imagery shows that none of these clouds are very thick.

The water vapor imagery shows deep moisture over the state, with a few embedded, mesoscale disturbances.  These small scale bends in the moisture flow will be a place for afternoon thunderstorms to develop.

The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a really humid atmosphere.    There was 0.97 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH) present.  There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.9 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 8 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 6 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to directional changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show warm temperatures and moderately-high humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions).  The skies are mostly clear, though a few stations are reporting cloud cover,  and the winds are light.  There are no major frontal boundaries present.

The surface pressure chart shows some high pressure over the northern border of the state, and a slight pressure gradient through the northwestern quadrant.  The RAP shows that the high pressure will decrease over the next six hours, weakening the pressure gradient.

Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows that an upper-level high pressure system has formed over the southwest.  Flow aloft is weak.

The 500 mb NAM chart shows that there is no strong vorticity advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The 700 mb NAM chart shows no large pockets of rapidly-rising air.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The 850 mb NAM chart shows some weak Cold Air Advection (CAA) pushing up the Rio Grande River Valley.  It is interesting how colder air is coming up the valley from the south!

The Precipitation chart shows that rain will be possible by 0 Z, over most of the state today.

Today, there will be a few more showers and thunderstorms, as compared to yesterday.  Maybe we’ll get some rain this evening.  The flooding potential is much higher, given the extremely slow storm motions and deep moisture.

Thank you for reading my forecast.

The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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