New Mexico Weather: 7/13/17

Yesterday was a sunny and hot day in Rio Rancho.  The skies clouded up in the late evening, and we had some light rain in the evening, just enough to wet the ground. Below is a photo from one of the storms that rained over Isleta:

This morning has been mild, still and mostly cloudy.  I walked through some light rain in downtown Albuquerque.  There was a nice sunrise over Rio Rancho:

…and a brief rainbow as well:

National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a mostly sunny day, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 95 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph, becoming southeast in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 67 F. Winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph, becoming northwest after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a mostly sunny day, with a 50% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms high temperature of 87 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph, becoming east in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 50% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 63 F. Winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph, becoming northwest after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) mostly sunny day, with a 40% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 94 F. The winds will be from the northeast at 5-10 mph becoming south.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 50% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 67 F. Winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph, becoming east after midnight.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has two separate Marginal Risk regions over the state, due to the ample moisture available today.

The visible satellite imagery shows some ongoing morning convection, especially over the Rio Grande River Valley.

The infrared satellite imagery shows some thicker clouds centered in the strongest convection.

The water vapor imagery shows that there is deep moisture over most of the state again this morning.  However, there is some dry air over the southeastern corner, and a sharp, mid-level dryline between these two air masses.

The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a really humid atmosphere.    There was 1.10 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was 170 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -235 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH) present.  There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 7.1 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 6 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 12 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to directional changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures and moderately-high humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions).  The skies are clear (the sensor can see through these clouds) and the winds are light.  There are no major frontal boundaries present.

The surface pressure chart shows no major pressure systems or strong pressure gradients over the state so far this morning.  The RAP shows that no major pressure systems or gradients are expected over the state for at least the next six hours.

Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows that an upper-level high pressure system has formed over the southwest.  Flow aloft is weak.

The 500 mb NAM chart shows that there is no strong vorticity advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The 700 mb NAM chart shows several strong pockets of rapidly-rising air to the west of the Albuquerque Metro area by 18 Z.

The 850 mb NAM chart shows some weak Cold Air Advection (CAA) into the southeastern corner of the state.

The Precipitation chart shows that the chances of rain are lower today, with rain possible over the western part of the state by 00 Z.

Today will be stormier for the Rio Grande River Valley than it has been for the last few days. I expect we will get some rain today, with 1.10 inches of precipitable water present, and some instability.  However, the likelihood of severe storms is limited due to the weak shear, and wet column (no virga bombs).

Thank you for reading my forecast.

The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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