Yesterday was a sunny and hot day in Rio Rancho. The skies clouded up in the late evening, and there were thunderstorms in several directions (northwest and south), but we had no rain at my house in Rio Rancho. The limited cloud cover and the reflection of the city lights made for some neat effects last night:
This morning has been warm, still and partly sunny. To my west, there is left-over anvil debris from yesterday’s convection.
National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 96 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph, becoming southeast in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 67 F. Winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming northwest after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a partly sunny day, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms high temperature of 87 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph, becoming southeast in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 63 F. Winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming northwest after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) partly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 96 F. The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph becoming southwest. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 67 F. Winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph, becoming northeast after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning thunderstorms this evening. Storms will be isolated, but could produce damaging, gusty winds, hail up to the size of pennies, and minor flooding.
The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.
The infrared satellite imagery shows some clouds over the western third of the state this morning. This is more of the left-over anvil material from yesterday’s convection.
The water vapor imagery shows that there is deep moisture over most of the state again this morning. However, there is some dry air over the southeastern corner, and a sharp, mid-level dryline between these two air masses.
The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a really humid atmosphere. There was 0.85 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was 26 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -373 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH) present. There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.4 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 16 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 5 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to directional changes).
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures and moderately-high humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions). The skies are clear and the winds are light. There are no major frontal boundaries present.
The surface pressure chart shows no major pressure systems or strong pressure gradients over the state so far this morning. The RAP shows that a thermal low will develop over central New Mexico, dropping the pressure everywhere in the state in the next six hours. No strong pressure gradients are expected.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows that an upper-level high pressure system has formed over the southwest. Flow aloft is weak.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows that there is no strong vorticity advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows several strong pockets of rapidly-rising air to the west of the Albuquerque Metro area.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows some weak Cold Air Advection (CAA) into the southeastern corner of the state.
The Precipitation chart shows that the chances of rain are lower today, with rain possible over the western part of the state by 00 Z.
Today will be hot, with the stronger storms (probably below severe limits) in the west. According to the HRRR simulated radar, storms will be more widespread today, affecting the Rio Grande River Valley. However, with the limited shear, storms will have trouble staying organized, and will likely remain below severe limits.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD