Long Range Forecasting: 7/11/17-7/18/17

It is time to look ahead at the long range forecast, as told by the GFS model.

The next week will be hot, though precipitation is possible most days this week.  It is pretty much a repeat of last week, and I am changing very little.

The 300 mb GFS shows weak zonal to no flow aloft almost the entire week.  We do start to see a very weak jetstreak develop over the state by early next week, but it is only very weak, with some flow from the southwest.  The jetstream will remain to our north for the entire week.

The 850 mb GFS charts show that the temperature will be really hot for the next few days. This time around, there are no strong back door cold fronts waiting to provide relief.  There is some weak Cold Air Advection (CAA) most days in the southeastern corner of the state, but the temperature never really cools off very much.

The Precipitation charts show that there are chances of precipitation most days over the next week, as is typical with monsoon season.  Coverage will be the greatest on Saturday night/Sunday morning, but rain is possible most days, after this evening.

New Mexico will be hot, but we have entered monsoon season.  Rain and thunderstorms are possible almost every day, and winds will be weak.  Shear is almost nonexistent, keeping storms below severe limits.

Thank you for reading my post.

GFS Model Data is from Unisys Weather


About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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