New Mexico Weather: 7/11/17

Yesterday was a sunny and hot day in Rio Rancho.  The skies clouded up in the late evening, and there were thunderstorms in several directions (east and west), but we had no rain at my house in Rio Rancho.

This morning has been warm, still and sunny.  The skies over Rio Rancho are virtually cloudless, though there are a few light cumulus clouds:

National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 95 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph, becoming south in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 67 F. Winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming northwest after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms high temperature of 86 F. The winds will be from the north at 5 mph, becoming south in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 63 F. Winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph, becoming west after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) a mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 96 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 69 F. Winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph, becoming northeast after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning thunderstorms this evening.  Storms will be isolated, but could produce damaging, gusty winds, hail up to the size of pennies, and minor flooding.

The visible satellite imagery shows few clouds over the state so far this morning.  This, and the infrared satellite imagery have been excluded from today’s post.

The water vapor imagery shows that there is deep moisture over most of the state again this morning.

The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a really humid atmosphere, with a slight inverted-v type pattern.    There was 0.81 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH) present.  There was a small thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.7 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 11 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 8 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to directional changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures and moderate humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions).  The skies are clear and the winds are light.  There are no major frontal boundaries present, but there is a weak dryline running from north to south through the eastern third of the state.

The surface pressure chart shows no major pressure systems or strong pressure gradients over the state so far this morning.  The RAP shows that a thermal low will develop over Colorado, dropping the pressure everywhere in the state in the next six hours.  No strong pressure gradients are expected.

Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows that an upper-level high pressure system has formed over the southwest.  Flow aloft is weak.

The 500 mb NAM chart shows that there is no strong vorticity advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The 700 mb NAM chart shows several strong pockets of rapidly-rising air to the west of the Albuquerque Metro area.

The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Precipitation chart shows that the chances of rain are lower today, with rain possible over the western part of the state by 00 Z.

Today will be hot, with the stronger storms (probably below severe limits) in the west.  According to the HRRR, storms will likely form over the western edge of the Rio Grande River Valley and move northwest, leaving Albuquerque drier than Farmington.  However, given the shape of the sounding (inverted-v), storms that form will have gusty winds and strong virga bomb downdrafts.  However, given the low shear, rotating, severe storms are unlikely.

Thank you for reading my forecast.

The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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