Yesterday was a sunny and hot day in Rio Rancho. We did have some storms move through the area. They became better rain producers after they passed south through Rio Rancho, dumping heavy rains along the I-25 corridor, but only a few sprinkles here.
This morning has been warm, still and sunny. The skies over Rio Rancho are virtually cloudless:
National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a partly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 97 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 66 F. Winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a partly sunny day, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms high temperature of 88 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph, becoming northeast in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 63 F. Winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming west after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 97 F. The winds will be calm, becoming southwest at 5 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 69 F. Winds will be from the south at 5 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning thunderstorms this evening. Storms will be isolated, but could produce damaging, gusty winds, hail up to the size of pennies, and minor flooding.
The visible satellite imagery shows quite a few clouds in the southern part of the state. They are remnants of yesterday’s showers and thunderstorms.
The infrared satellite imagery shows that a few of the clouds are moderately thick, left over from yesterday’s convection.
The water vapor imagery shows that there is deep moisture over most of the state this morning.
The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a really humid atmosphere. There was 0.89 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was 7 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -472 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH) present. There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.4 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 18 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 14 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to directional changes).
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures and moderate humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions). The skies are clear and the winds are light, if anything at all. There are no major frontal boundaries present, but there is a weak dryline running from north to south through the eastern third of the state.
The surface pressure chart shows no major pressure systems or strong pressure gradients over the state so far this morning. The RAP shows that a thermal low will develop over Colorado, dropping the pressure everywhere in the state in the next six hours. No strong pressure gradients are expected.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows that an upper-level high pressure system has formed over the southwest. Flow aloft is weak.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows that there is no strong vorticity advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM charts are unavailable at this time.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Precipitation chart shows that the chances of rain are lower today, with rain possible over most of the state by 00 Z.
Today will be hot. Here in Rio Rancho, we probably won’t see an afternoon thunderstorm, much to my disappointment. I will work in the garden today for a bit, until it gets too hot.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD