Yesterday was a sunny and hot day in Rio Rancho. In the evening, we had a brief storm, and I watched a virga bomb, and then precipitation fall over the city of Albuquerque.
This morning has been warm, still and partly cloudy. There are a few light clouds over Rio Rancho:
National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 96 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 67 F. Winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 89 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a low temperature of 63 F. Winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph, becoming southwest after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 95 F. The winds will be from the south at 5 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 69 F. Winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph, moving northeast.
The NWS in Albuquerque has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning dry thunderstorms this evening. Storms will be isolated, but could produce damaging, gusty winds. The storms in the northeastern part of the state may have large hail and will approach severe limits.
The visible satellite imagery shows a few clouds north of the Albuquerque Metro area.
The infrared satellite imagery shows that a few of the clouds are moderately thick, but nothing really thick.
The water vapor imagery shows that there is deep moisture over most of the state this morning.
The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a really humid atmosphere. There was 0.96 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was 53 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -286 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH) present. There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 7.6 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 11 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 13 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to directional changes).
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show warm temperatures and moderate humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions). The skies are clear and the winds are light, if anything at all. There are no major frontal boundaries present, but there is a weak dryline running from north to south through the eastern third of the state.
The surface pressure chart shows some higher pressure over the CO/NM border, with no strong pressure gradients over the state so far this morning. The RAP shows that the pressure everywhere will decrease with diurnal heating over the next six hours.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows that an upper-level high pressure system has formed over the southwest. Flow aloft is weak.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows that there is no strong vorticity advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows a few strong pockets of rapidly-rising air this afternoon.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows some weak Cold Air Advection (CAA) moving in from the southeast. More importantly, this southeasterly breeze is probably bringing some low-level moisture to the state. Also, there is some slightly cooler air over the northeastern part of the state as well.
The Precipitation chart shows that the chances of rain are lower today, with rain possible in several areas by 00 Z.
Today will be hot, with an occasional afternoon thunderstorm.
I will likely attend the Skywarn training today in Santa Fe, just to refresh my knowledge on what gets reported in the Albuquerque NWS Forecast area.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD