Yesterday was a sunny and hot in Socorro. By the evening, there were partly cloudy skies, as shown by this sunset photo in downtown Albuquerque, along my commute:
This morning has been warm, still and sunny. There were a few light clouds in the sky.
National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 99 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 67 F. Winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 90 F. The winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a low temperature of 61 F. Winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph, becoming southwest after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 100 F. The winds will be from the east at 5 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 68 F. Winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning dry thunderstorms this evening. Storms will be isolated, but could produce damaging, gusty winds.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has said that a few isolated, dry thunderstorms are possible, particularly in the northwestern corner of the state. This will increase the chances of wildfires.
The visible satellite imagery shows a few light clouds moving in from the northeast. Monsoon season is neat; the clouds move backwards from the way you expect in the northern hemisphere.
The infrared satellite imagery shows no thick clouds over the state this morning. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The water vapor imagery shows that there is some deeper moisture in the northern half of the state. Moisture is adequate for showers and thunderstorms today, statewide.
The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a damp atmosphere, with a slight inverted v shape. There was 0.83 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was 9 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -510 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH) present. There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 7.1 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 12 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 5 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to directional changes).
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show warm temperatures and moderate humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions). The skies are clear and the winds are light, if anything at all. There are no major frontal boundaries present, but there is a weak dryline running from north to south through the eastern third of the state.
The surface pressure chart is having some delays right now. It looks like we are under higher pressure, but I can’t see what the RAP is doing in six hours.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows that an upper-level high pressure system has formed over the southwest. Flow aloft is weak.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows that there is no strong vorticity advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows no strong pockets of rapidly-rising air this afternoon. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows some weak Cold Air Advection (CAA) moving in from the southeast. More importantly, this southeasterly breeze is probably bringing some low-level moisture to the state.
The Precipitation chart shows that the chances of rain are lower today, with rain possible in the northern part of the state.
Today will be hot, with an occasional afternoon thunderstorm. We have definitely entered our monsoon season, so rain will be possible today as well.
I really liked watching the satellite loop this morning and seeing the clouds roll in from the east. My brain still thinks I’m running the loop backwards, and I end up checking the slider to be sure.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD