Yesterday was a sunny and hot in Rio Rancho. We received no rain or thunderstorms, and the skies never really clouded up. The hot day blended into a pleasant evening.
This morning has been warm, still and sunny. There was a little smoke in the air at sunrise:
National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 98 F. The winds will be from the east at 5 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 67 F. Winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph, becoming south after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 90 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming east in the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 62 F. Winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph, becoming southwest after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 97 F. The winds will be calm, but then from the east at 5 mph in the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 68 F. Winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning dry thunderstorms this evening. Storms will be quite isolated, but could produce damaging, gusty winds.
The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.
The infrared satellite imagery shows no thick clouds over the state this morning. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The water vapor imagery shows that there is not as much deep moisture as there was yesterday, and there are no major disturbances over the state so far this morning.
The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a damp atmosphere, with a slight inverted v shape. There was 0.71 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no of Convective Inhibition (CINH) present. There was small thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.5 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 11 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 12 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to directional changes).
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show warm temperatures and moderate humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions). The skies are clear and the winds variable. There are no major frontal boundaries present, but there is a weak dryline running from north to south through the eastern third of the state.
The surface pressure chart shows that the northern part of the state is under a slight high pressure system. The RAP shows that diurnal heating will drop the pressure everywhere today, though no strong pressure gradients are expected to develop.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows that upper-level winds are just beginning to wrap around from the northeast. Over the next few days, an upper-level high will develop over the state, and these winds will wrap around it anti-cyclonically.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows that there is no strong vorticity advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows a few pockets of rapidly-rising air just west of the Albuquerque Metro area by 18 Z.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Precipitation chart shows that the chances of rain are lower today, with rain possible in the northern part of the state.
Today will be hot, with an occasional afternoon thunderstorm. I am not expecting much precipitation, as there is less moisture today than yesterday, and the upper level dynamics are a little less disturbed as well.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD