New Mexico Weather: 7/5/17

Yesterday was a sunny and hot in Rio Rancho.   I did some grilling in the morning and afternoon, and then went to an Isotopes baseball game in the evening.  The game was hot until the sun set, but the sunset was great:

This morning has been warm, still and mostly sunny.  There are a few cumulus clouds building in the distance:

National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a sunny day, with a 20% chance of dry, isolated thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 100 F. The winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 66 F. Winds will be from the east at 5-15 mph, becoming southwest after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of dry, isolated thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 92 F. The winds will be from the northeast at 10-15 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 61 F. Winds will be from the east at 5-15 mph, becoming southwest after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) a mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of dry, isolated thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 98 F. The winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 64 F. Winds will be from the east at 5-15 mph, becoming south after midnight.

The visible satellite imagery shows a few cumulus clouds forming at the higher elevations.

The infrared satellite imagery shows no thick clouds over the state this morning.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The water vapor imagery shows that there is a slight shortwave trough disturbing the moisture in the northern part of the state.

The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a damp atmosphere, with a slight inverted v shape.    There was 0.83 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was 93 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -588 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH) present.  There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.7 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 14 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 20 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to directional changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show warm temperatures and moderate humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions).  The skies are clear and the winds variable.  There are no major frontal boundaries present, but there is a weak dryline running from north to south through the eastern third of the state.

The surface pressure chart shows no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state so far this morning.  The RAP shows that none are expected to develop over the next six hours, though diurnal heating will drop the pressure everywhere today.

Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows that upper-level winds are just beginning to wrap around from the northeast.  Over the next few days, an upper-level high will develop over the state, and these winds will wrap around it anti-cyclonically.

The 500 mb NAM chart shows that there is no strong vorticity advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The 700 mb NAM chart is unavailable at this time.

The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Precipitation chart shows that rain is possible through much of the state, particularly in the Lower Rio Grande River Valley.

Today will be hot, with an occasional afternoon thunderstorm.  This evening may bring some rain.  However, I think I will probably skip running today (though I am still undecided) due to the temperature.

Thank you for reading my forecast.

The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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