Yesterday was a sunny and hot in Rio Rancho. I was planning on grilling, but I got caught up in another project, so I will grill this morning instead.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) had one reported tornado in Curry county yesterday:
This morning has been still, clear and mild. I was able to photograph the International Space Station (ISS) this morning at sunrise:
National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 98 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph, becoming east in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 65 F. Winds will be from the east at 5 mph, becoming west after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 89 F. The winds will be from the west at 10 mph, becoming northeast in the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 59 F. Winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph, becoming west after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 98 F. The winds will be from the north at 5 mph, becoming northwest by the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 62 F. Winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook for most of its forecast area, due to the chance of isolated storms in the eastern third of the state. The NWS mentions large hail and strong microburst winds.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Marginal Risk for the eastern border of the state today.
The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.
The infrared satellite imagery shows no thick clouds over the state this morning. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The water vapor imagery shows that the deep moisture has remained over the southern and very eastern borders of the state.
The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a damp atmosphere, with an inverted v shape, and a moisture peak at the 550 mb level. There was 0.56 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH) present. There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.4 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 14 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 16 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to speed changes).
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures and moderate humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions). The skies are clear and the winds still, with no wind reported in many locations. There are no major frontal boundaries present, but there is a dryline running from north to south through the eastern third of the state.
The surface pressure chart shows no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state so far this morning. The RAP shows that none are expected to develop over the next six hours.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows weak, zonal to northwesterly flow aloft.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows that there is no strong vorticity advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart is unavailable at this time.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Precipitation chart shows that rain is possible in the northeastern corner of the state today by 00 Z.
Today will be hot and still. I am not expecting many storms in the Rio Grande River Valley today, so I will be grilling out and then going to a baseball game.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD