Long Range Forecasting: 7/4/17-7/11/17

It is time to look ahead at the long range forecast, as told by the GFS model.

The next week will be hot, though precipitation is possible most days this week.

The 300 mb GFS charts start out with weak, northwesterly to zonal flow.  However, after all of these days of hot, dry, weather, a thermal low (and an upper-level high) will develop causing the pattern to switch from northwesterly flow to northeasterly flow.  (“Monsoon” has more to do with a shift in wind direction than rain, though it is often accompanied by heavier precipitation.)  This upper-level high will remain in place for the bulk of the next week.

The 850 mb GFS charts show that the temperature will be really hot for the next few days. This time around, there are no strong back door cold fronts waiting to provide relief.  There is some weak Cold Air Advection (CAA) most days in the southeastern corner of the state, but the temperature never really cools off very much.

The Precipitation charts show that there are chances of precipitation most days over the next week, as is typical with monsoon season.  Coverage will be the greatest on Sunday night/Monday morning, but rain is possible most days, after this evening.

New Mexico will be hot, but we have entered monsoon season.  The can only heat the land for so long until that thermal low develops, and that is exactly what is happening this week.

Thank you for reading my post.

GFS Model Data is from Unisys Weather


About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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