Yesterday was a sunny and hot in Rio Rancho. By the afternoon, some cumulus clouds covered most of the sky, though no rain or storms were in sight. The evening was quite pleasant; mild and with a slight breeze.
This morning has been still, mostly sunny and mild. There were a few hot air balloons up this morning as well, though I only captured two in this photo:
National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 98 F. The winds will be from the north at 5-15 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 66 F. Winds will be from the northwest at 5-15 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 90 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 10-15 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 62 F. Winds will be from the west at 5-15 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 97 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5-15 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 65 F. Winds will be from the northwest at 10-15 mph, becoming light and variable after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook for most of its forecast area, due to the chance of isolated storms in the eastern third of the state. The NWS mentions large hail and strong microburst winds.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Marginal Risk for the northeastern corner of the state today.
The visible satellite imagery shows some light clouds in the southern third of the state, and a few cumulus clouds moving out of the state into Texas.
The infrared satellite imagery shows that none of the clouds are very thick, so far this morning.
The water vapor imagery shows that there is some deep moisture advecting into the state from the south.
The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a damp atmosphere, with an inverted v shape, and a moisture peak at the 550 mb level. There was 0.65 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH) present. There was a small thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.4 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 18 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 36 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to speed changes).
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures and moderate humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions). The skies are clear and the winds still, with no wind reported in many locations. There are no major frontal boundaries present on this graphic over the state this morning.
The surface pressure chart shows no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state so far this morning. The RAP shows that none are expected to develop over the next six hours.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows weak, zonal to northwesterly flow aloft.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows that there is no strong vorticity advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows some rapidly-rising air over the western half of the state by 18 Z.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Precipitation chart shows that rain is unlikely in New Mexico today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
Today will be similar to yesterday, though I think the chances of many severe storms are much smaller even still. There is an inverted-v type sounding, so any storms today will be more likely to produce wind damage. Otherwise, it looks like a hot day here in Rio Rancho. I will probably cook out today, and go to a baseball game tomorrow.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD