Yesterday was a sunny and hot in Socorro. By the afternoon, there were scattered thunderstorms over much of the state. I left Ruidoso in pursuit of one storm, where I saw pea-sized hail. The storm soon fell apart and I gave up and went home. Here was the storm as it matured.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) received a few large hail reports and a few wind damage reports, all in the eastern half of the state yesterday.
This morning has been still, mostly sunny and mild. There was a beautiful sunrise this morning over Rio Rancho:
National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 96 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 66 F. Winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph, becoming northwest after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a mostly sunny day, with a 30% chance of scattered thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 89 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph, becoming northeast in the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 61 F. Winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph, becoming west after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 89 F. The winds will be from the east at 5-15 mph, becoming west in the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 65 F. Winds will be from the west at 10-15 mph, becoming light and variable after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook for most of its forecast area, due to the chance of isolated storms ahead of the cold front. The NWS mentions large hail and strong microburst winds.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Marginal Risk for the northeastern corner of the state today.
The SPC has also issued an Elevated Fire Weather risk for most of northern Arizona and into northwestern New Mexico. Gallup and Farmington are included in this risk.
The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.
The infrared satellite imagery shows that most of the thick clouds have moved into Texas.
The water vapor imagery shows that some of the deep moisture was transported out of the state by yesterday’s storms, but there is still plenty left over.
The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a damp atmosphere, with a moisture peak at the 450 mb level. There was 0.67 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was 179 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -655 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH) present. There was a tiny thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 5.8 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 19 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 26 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to speed changes).
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures and moderately-high humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions). The skies are clear and the winds from the south. There are no major frontal boundaries present on this graphic over the state this morning.
The surface pressure chart shows that slightly higher pressure has worked its way into the northeastern corner of the state, behind the back door cold front. There is only a weak pressure gradient across the center of the state this morning. The RAP shows that the pressure everywhere will decrease with diurnal heating over the next six hours, though the pressure gradient will weaken.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows weak, zonal flow aloft.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows that there is no strong vorticity advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows some rapidly-rising air over the northwestern corner of the state by 18 Z.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Precipitation chart shows that rain is possible, particularly in the southeastern corner of the state today.
Today will be similar to yesterday, though I think the chances of many severe storms are much smaller. There is an inverted-v type sounding, so any storms today will be more likely to produce wind damage. Otherwise, it looks like a hot day here in Rio Rancho. I am going to do some gardening early this morning before it gets too hot.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD