Yesterday was a sunny and hot in Socorro. By the afternoon, there were quite a few cumulus clouds, though most of them mixed out by the evening. Elsewhere in the state, there were some high wind and large hail storm reports near the Texas border:
This morning has been still, sunny, and warm. There is some smoke in the air, as shown in this photo of Socorro Peak (M Mountain):
National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a mostly sunny day, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 96 F. The winds will be from the northeast at 5-15 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 67 F. Winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a sunny day, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 89 F. The winds will be from the east at 5-15 mph, becoming south in the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 63 F. Winds will be from the southeast at 10-15 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) a mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 91 F. The winds will be from the east at 10 mph, becoming south in the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 64 F. Winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph, becoming east at after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook for most of its forecast area, due to the chance of isolated storms ahead of the cold front. The NWS mentions large hail and gusty winds as the primary threats.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Marginal Risk for the northeastern corner of the state today.
Associated with the Marginal Risk is a 2% Tornado Threat Ring:
The SPC has also issued an Elevated Fire Weather risk for most of northern Arizona and into northwestern New Mexico. Gallup is included in this risk.
The visible satellite imagery shows cloud cover over the eastern half of the state this morning.
The infrared satellite imagery shows a few thicker clouds left over from yesterday’s storms.
The water vapor imagery shows that there is some moisture over the state this morning. It is nearly uniform, though there are still some left-over storms in the eastern half of the state.
The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a much damper atmosphere this morning, as compared to yesterday. There was 0.74 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was 230 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -488 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH) present. There was a small thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 5.8 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 22 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 43 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to speed changes).
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show warm temperatures and moderately-high humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions). The skies are cloudy over the eastern half of the state, and the winds are light, statewide. The back door cold front can be identified by the wind direction shift in the northeastern quadrant of the state. Due to the elevation changes involved, it is unreliable to use temperature changes to mark the location of the front.
The surface pressure chart shows that slightly higher pressure has worked its way into the northeastern corner of the state, behind the back door cold front. This has left a moderate pressure gradient through the middle of the state. The RAP shows that the pressure everywhere will decrease with diurnal heating over the next six hours, though the pressure gradient will only weaken slightly.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows weak, zonal flow aloft.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows that there is no strong vorticity advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM charts are unavailable at this time.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows that the Cold Air Advection (CAA) will weaken this afternoon, though the temperature change is visible on this graphic.
The Precipitation chart shows that rain is possible, particularly through the center of the state ahead of the cold front.
This back door cold front ended up stronger than expected. We may have some storms- some of which will approach and may exceed severe limits this afternoon. Rain (and relief from the heat) is possible in the Rio Grande River Valley this afternoon.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD