Yesterday was a sunny, hot, cloudless day, with some breeze in the afternoon.
This morning has been still, sunny, and mild. It is cloudless again today, but there is some smoke on the horizon:
National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 97 F. The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph, becoming southeast by the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 64 F. Winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph, becoming northeast after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 89 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph, becoming southeast in the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 60 F. Winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 94 F. The winds will be from the east at 5 mph, becoming south in the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 64 F. Winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph, becoming east at 5-10 mph after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook for most of its forecast area, due to the chance of isolated storms ahead of the cold front. The NWS mentions large hail and gusty winds as the primary threats, but a tornado is possible as well.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Marginal Risk for the northeastern corner of the state today.
The SPC has also issued an Elevated Fire Weather risk for most of northern Arizona and into northwestern New Mexico. Farmington is included in this risk.
The visible satellite imagery shows a few clouds over the northeastern corner of the state, ahead of a back door cold front.
The infrared satellite imagery shows no few thick clouds at this time. This image is excluded from today’s post.
The water vapor imagery shows that some moisture is returning to the area. It is creeping in from the southwest, from the Pacific and the Gulf of California.
The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows dry air again today, though there is a moisture peak at the 500 mb level. There was 0.28 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no of Convective Inhibition (CINH) present. There was a large thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 5.3 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 4 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 38 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to speed changes).
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show warm temperatures. The skies are clear, except in the northeastern corner of the state, where there are also moderate winds, due to the approaching back door cold front. There is a steep dryline running through the eastern third of the state.
The surface pressure chart shows that we are under a thermal low, with a moderate pressure gradients over the eastern half of the state this morning. The RAP shows that the thermal low is expected to deepen over the next six hours, dropping the pressure statewide. As the back door cold front moves into the state from the northeast, slightly higher pressure over the Great Plains will cause the pressure gradient to sharpen slightly.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows zonal flow aloft. We are at the bottom of a shallow, broad trough, giving us zonal flow.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows that there is no strong vorticity advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows no significant rapidly-rising air over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows that there is some weak Cold Air Advection (CAA) in the form of a back door cold front pushing into the state from the northeast. This front is a little stronger than predicted earlier this week.
The Precipitation chart shows that rain will be mostly contained to the northeastern corner, ahead of the back door cold front.
Today is going to be interesting. A few days ago, the GFS has a very weak back door cold front, but it appears to have become stronger over the past few days. There is some chance of storms, particularly in the northeastern corner of the state. Deep-layer shear is adequate for rotating storms as well. There is not much moisture, but there may be enough for a few storms, particularly east of the dryline, where moisture is much richer.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD