Yesterday, we had a good thunderstorm and soaking rain in Socorro. I was standing outside when a tree on campus got struck by lightning. I decided to go back indoors.
This morning has been still, sunny, and mild. There is quite a bit of smoke on the horizon due to the fires burning to our south:
National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 98 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming southwest by the afternoon. This evening will be clear, with a low temperature of 65 F. Winds will be from the southwest at 10-15 mph, becoming northwest after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 90 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 60 F. Winds will be from the west at 15 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 94 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 10-15 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 63 F. Winds will be from the west at 5-15 mph.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Critical Fire Weather risk for most of northern Arizona and into western New Mexico. Gallup and Farmington are included in this risk.
The visible satellite imagery shows no clouds over the state at this time.
The infrared satellite imagery shows no few thick clouds at this time. Both the visible and infrared images are excluded from today’s post.
The water vapor imagery shows that the dry air has arrived. Notice the lack of moisture over the western half of the state. The dry air will continue to move east.
The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a much drier atmosphere this morning, as compared to the past week. There was 0.37 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no of Convective Inhibition (CINH) present. There was a small thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.4 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 8 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 20 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to speed changes).
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show warm temperatures, and low humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions). The skies are clear and the winds are light. There are no major frontal boundaries present over the state so far this morning.
The surface pressure chart shows that we are under a thermal low, with no strong pressure gradients over the state this morning. The RAP shows that the thermal low is expected to deepen over the next six hours, dropping the pressure to 996 mb near the NM/CO border.
With several fires already burning in the state, the Mid-Elevation Haines chart shows that these fires will have the potential to expand, given the hot, dry conditions.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows light, zonal flow aloft. There is a weak jetstreak approaching that will increase the shear slightly.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows that there is no strong vorticity advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows no significant rapidly-rising air over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows that there is no strong thermal advection expected over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Precipitation chart shows that rain will be unlikely today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
We are back into a hot weather pattern, and will remain there for a few days. Conditions will remain hot and dry, and existing wildfires will have the opportunity to spread.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD