Long Range Forecasting: 6/27/17-7/4/17

It is time to look ahead at the long range forecast, as told by the GFS model.

The next week will be hot.  The air will dry out, with almost no chance of precipitation after tonight.

The 300 mb GFS charts show weak zonal to northwesterly flow over the state for the entire tie period.  This will limit the severe weather potential and will ultimately provide little relief from the hot weather.  On Friday, we will at least see a weak jetstreak pass overhead, but no major troughs expected.

The 850 mb GFS charts show that the temperature will be really hot for the next few days.  Friday afternoon, a back door cold front is expected to push southwest from the Great Plains, though it will not be as robust as the back door cold front from last weekend.  It will instead only lower the temperatures in the northeastern corner of the state, and with limited moisture, will not improve the chances for severe weather.

The Precipitation charts show that the chances of rain will stay low throughout the next week.  I have excluded these charts (as they are boring) from this post.

New Mexico will be hot, and there won’t be much relief from the heat.  In fact, it is so hot that this pattern will not hold up for much longer than this week.  Eventually, a strong enough thermal low will develop and kick off a strong monsoon season.

Thank you for reading my post.

GFS Model Data is from Unisys Weather

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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