Yesterday was another hot day. I expected it to become windy, but it did not. Perhaps the cold front stalled?
This morning has been still, sunny, hazy and mild. Here is a view of the backyard again today, with hazy skies and milder temperatures.
National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a partly sunny day, with a 30% chance of showers and (potentially severe) storms, and a high temperature of 94 F. The winds will be from the east at 10-15 mph, becoming west in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 50% chance of isolated showers and (potentially severe) thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 67 F. Winds will be from the west at 10-15 mph, becoming south after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a partly sunny day, with a 50% chance of showers and (potentially severe) storms, and a high temperature of 86 F. The winds will be from the east at 10-15 mph, becoming southwest in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 50% chance of isolated showers and (potentially severe) thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 60 F. Winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) a partly sunny day, with a 30% chance of showers and (potentially severe) storms, and a high temperature of 90 F. The winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph, becoming south in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 40% chance of isolated showers and (potentially severe) thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 68 F. Winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming east.
The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning the possibility of severe thunderstorms through most of the state this afternoon and evening. Storms are expected to develop over the Continental divide and the Central Mountain chain, and trek southeast. Heavy rains, gusty winds, large hail, and even a brief tornado are possible with these storms.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Marginal Risk for the central mountain chain and east, where gusty winds and large hail are the primary threats.
The visible satellite imagery shows continuous cloud cover east of the central mountain chain.
The infrared satellite imagery shows very few thick clouds at this time. The big blanket of clouds in the east is very thin.
The water vapor imagery shows that there is some moisture aloft, and that is is moving zonally across the state today.
The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows that some moisture has returned to the area. The sounding has a weak inverted-v type shape, with a moisture peak at around 700 mb. There was 0.90 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was 38 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -580 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH) present. There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 5.6 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 22 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 35 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to speed changes).
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures, and moderately-high humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions). The skies are clear in the west and cloudy in the east. There is a wind direction shift that corresponds to the line where the cloudy skies begin; this is our cold front.
The surface pressure chart shows a moderate pressure gradient across the state this morning as a back door cold front treks southwest through the state. The RAP shows that a thermal low will intensify along the Arizona border, and that the high pressure will weaken, yet advance southwest, intensifying the pressure gradient over the next six hours.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows light zonal to northwesterly flow aloft. There is a trough to our north, but it will not punch south into New Mexico.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows that there is no strong vorticity advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows a few pockets of rapidly-rising air over much of the western part of the state by 00 Z.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows that there is strong Cold Air Advection (CAA) as a back door cold front pushing southwest from the northeastern corner of the state. Notice the strong winds perpendicular to the thermal gradient.
The Precipitation chart shows that rain will be possible for much of the central part of New Mexico by 00 Z.
Today is a day of transition for New Mexico. This back door cold front will cool things down a bit, but it will bring potentially severe storms. JoAnna and I were planning on camping out for Field Day, an amateur radio event, but we’ll see. Given the chances of rain, we may not sleep in the back of the pickup as we had originally planned.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD