New Mexico Weather: 6/23/17

Yesterday was another hot day.  I avoided all outdoor activity until around sundown, when JoAnna and I took a walk around the neighborhood.  It had cooled off a bit and there was a slight breeze.  There was a nice sunset to see:

This morning has been still, sunny, hazy and hot.  Here is a view of the backyard again today, with hazy skies and high temperatures.  It is actually hazier today than yesterday.

National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 101 F. The winds will be from the north at 10-15 mph.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 67 F. Winds will be from the northeast at 10-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 95 F. The winds will be from the north at 10 mph.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 60 F. Winds will be from the east at 10-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 99 F. The winds will be from the north 10-15 mph, becoming east in the afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 63 F. Winds will be from the east at 15-20 mph.

The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning the widespread heatwave that will occur over New Mexico over the next few days.  Today, there is a Heat Advisory in place over the western part of the state, including Albuquerque, Socorro, Magdalena and Rio Rancho.  This evening, a cold front will move in from the northeast, bringing lower temperatures and high winds.  The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Marginal Risk for the central mountain chain and east, where gusty winds and large hail are the primary threats.

The visible satellite imagery shows some pre-frontal clouds over the northeastern corner of the state, as well as haze over most of the state.

The infrared satellite imagery shows very few thick clouds at this time.

The water vapor imagery shows that there is some moisture aloft, and that is is moving zonally across the state today.

The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a drier atmosphere this morning than we’ve seen for several days.  There was 0.44 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH) present.  There was a small thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.4 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 6 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 29 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show hot temperatures, and moderately-low humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions).  The skies are clear, for the most part.  There are strong northeasterly breezes in the northeastern corner of the state as the back door cold front progresses southwest.

The surface pressure chart shows that high pressure behind a back door cold front will move into the northeastern part of the state.  Currently, we have a moderate pressure gradient across that corner.  The RAP shows that a thermal low will intensify in the southwestern corner of the state, and that the high pressure will weaken, yet advance southwest, intensifying the pressure gradient over the next six hours.

Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows light zonal to northwesterly flow aloft.  There is a trough to our north, but it will not punch south into New Mexico.

The 500 mb NAM chart shows that there is no strong vorticity advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The 700 mb NAM chart shows a few pockets of rapidly-rising air by 18 Z in the northwestern corner of the state.

The 850 mb NAM chart shows really high temperatures over most of the state today. However, there is strong Cold Air Advection (CAA) as a back door cold front pushing southwest from the northeastern corner of the state.  Notice the strong winds perpendicular to the thermal gradient.

The Precipitation chart shows that there is virtually no chance of precipitation, statewide, today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

Today will remain sunny, hot and clear for much of the state, clouding up in the evening.   However, we are in for a temporary change, as this back door cold front will bring cooler temperatures and strong winds as it approaches.  Perhaps this weekend will be cooler than this past week.

Thank you for reading my forecast.

The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Local WX, Photography, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery, Severe Weather and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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