Yesterday was another hot day. I avoided all outdoor activity until well after sundown. In the late evening, I went for a walk around the UNM campus, just to do some outdoor physical activity.
This morning has been still, sunny, hazy and hot. Here is a view of the backyard again today, with sunny skies and high temperatures.
National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 105 F. The winds will be from the north at 10 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 72 F. Winds will be from the northwest at 10 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 97 F. The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph, becoming south in the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 68 F. Winds will be from the northwest at 10-15 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 97 F. The winds will be from the north 10 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 68 F. Winds will be from the northwest at 10-15 mph.
The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning the widespread heatwave that will occur over New Mexico over the next few days. Today, there is a Heat Advisory in place over the western part of the state, including Albuquerque, Socorro, Magdalena and Rio Rancho. The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Slight Risk for the very eastern edge of New Mexico, though the primary threats will be gusty winds and perhaps some large hail, as the shear is low enough that tornadoes are unlikely.
The SPC also points out that isolated dry thunderstorms are possible today, especially over the western part of the state, leading to an increased fire risk. The SPC has put the western part of the state under an Elevated Fire Risk.
The visible satellite imagery shows no clouds over the state so far this morning. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The infrared satellite imagery shows no thick clouds at this time. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The water vapor imagery shows that there is some moisture aloft, perhaps matching the moisture peak that is shown on the sounding. Even so, it is hardly what I would consider deep moisture.
The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows an inverted-v type sounding, meaning dry microbursts (virga bombs) are possible with any storms that form today. There was 0.79 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was 6 J/kg Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -744 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH) present. There was a tiny thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 7.0 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 8 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 24 kts of deep-layer shear (due to a mix of speed and directional changes).
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show hot temperatures, and moderately-low humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions). The skies are clear, and the winds are still. There are no major frontal boundaries clearly defined over the state this morning.
The surface pressure chart shows that we are under slightly lower pressure, but with no strong pressure gradients present. The RAP shows that a thermal low will develop over the state (dropping to 994 mb) over the next six hours. No strong pressure gradients are expected to develop.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows light zonal flow aloft. The high has become open, and more ridge-like than a closed high pressure system.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows that there is no strong vorticity advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows a few pockets of rapidly-rising air by 18 Z in the northwestern corner of the state.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows really high temperatures over most of the state today. Unlike other days this week, there is no Cold Air Advection (CAA) pushing in from the east.
The Precipitation chart shows that there is virtually no chance of precipitation, statewide, today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
Today will remain sunny, hot and clear for much of the state, clouding up in the evening. Today’s chances of precipitation will be lower, given the lower CAPE and moisture. In the eastern part of the state, the chances of severe weather are a little higher, but I’m certainly not rushing out to chase today.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD