New Mexico Weather: 6/19/17

Yesterday was a long drive back from Van Buren, AR.  Due to a dinner stop and a slight car issue, we did not arrive in Rio Rancho until almost 5 AM this morning.

This morning has been breezy, clear and cool.  Here is a photo from my overgrown back yard:

National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 100 F. The winds will be from the east at 5 mph.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 69 F. Winds will be from the south at 5 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 92 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph, becoming east in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 69 F. Winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph, becoming southwest after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 99 F. The winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph, becoming southeast in the afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 67 F. Winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph.

The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning the widespread heatwave that will occur over New Mexico over the next few days.  Today, there are several Excessive Heat Watches in place, including one over Albuquerque and Rio Rancho.  The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The visible satellite imagery shows no clouds over the state today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The infrared satellite imagery shows no thick clouds over the state this morning.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The water vapor imagery shows that there is mostly dry air over the state today.

The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a moderately damp atmosphere below 500 mb.  There was 0.63 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was 40 J/kg Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -720 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH) present.  There was a small thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 5.9 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 5 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 10 kts of deep-layer shear ( due to a mix of speed and directional changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show warm temperatures, and high humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions), though lower than the last few days.  The skies are clear, and the still winds.  There are no major frontal boundaries clearly defined over the state this morning.

The surface pressure chart shows that we are under slightly lower pressure, but with no strong pressure gradients present.  The RAP shows that this thermal low will deepen near the Arizona border over the next six hours, but the pressure gradient will not increase significantly.

Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows very little flow aloft as we are centered under a large upper-level high pressure system.

The 500 mb NAM chart shows that there is no strong vorticity advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The 700 mb NAM chart shows no strong pockets of rapidly-rising air over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The 850 mb NAM chart shows really high temperatures over most of the state today.  There is some weak Cold Air Advection (CAA) moving in from the east, but it will provide no relief to the Albuquerque area.

The Precipitation chart shows that there is a few pockets of rain possible this afternoon, particularly in the southern half of the state.

Today will remain sunny and clear for much of the state, clouding up in the evening.  The day will be hot and still.  I’m already wondering if going for a run in a few minutes is a good idea.

Thank you for reading my forecast.

The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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