Today will be a long travel day, as we will drive from Huntington, WV, to Joplin, MO.
This morning has been mild, still and mostly clear as the fog mixes out. Here is the only photo I could take down our street this morning. Notice that every building is a strip club. I tried to take a photo without one, but it was impossible.
National Weather Service (NWS) in Charleston, WV, forecasts (for Huntington, WV) a foggy morning, followed by a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 89 F. The winds will be from the south at 5 mph.
The NWS in St. Louis, MO, forecasts (for St. Louis, MO) a gradual clearing becoming mostly sunny, with a high temperature of 91 F. The winds will be from the south at 7-13 mph.
The NWS in Springfield, MO, forecasts (for Joplin, MO) a mess of a day today, with severe storms possible, gusty winds, and a heat index of 109 F. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with an 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2 am, and a low temperature of 68 F. Winds will be from the south at 9-13 mph, gusting to 18 mph.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued an Enhanced Risk to the north of our travel route, and we will pass through the Slight Risk area. However, depending on timing, we could drive through the remnants of the storms that fired in the Enhanced Risk region, so we will proceed with caution.
The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.
The infrared satellite imagery shows a large cluster of thick clouds over Missouri. This will have likely drifted east as we push west, so we will drive under cloudy, rainy skies for much of our journey today.
The water vapor imagery shows that we are currently in a small stripe of dry air, but will return to deep moisture soon after we enter Kentucky, and will remain under deep moisture for the rest of the day.
The 12Z soundings are unavailable at this time.
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures, and high humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions). The skies are mostly clear along our route, with calm winds. The Doppler RADAR overlay shows that there is a large Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) over Missouri, and we will deal with the remnants, as well as new storms that form along its outflow boundaries, later today.
The surface pressure chart shows that we will drive towards lower pressure. The mid-latitude cyclone is centered over Iowa. We can expect the pressure to drop slowly, both due to its movement east and our movement west.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows that we will pass just south of a trough that has sagged through the midwest. We will actually be under a light northwesterly flow regime.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows that there is no strong vorticity advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows no major pockets of rapidly-rising air along our route today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The Precipitation chart shows that rain will be possible as we enter Illinois and Missouri, but that we will dodge a little south of the bulk of the precipitation.
It is going to be a mess later this evening, with storms firing to our north. We will have to keep a close eye on the radar to make sure we are not punching into severe weather this afternoon.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD