We drove from Amarillo, TX, to Joplin, MO, yesterday in excellent weather. It was hot, but not nearly as humid as I thought it would be.
This morning has been mild, mostly cloudy and still. I went for a run this morning, and had quite a pleasant time.
National Weather Service (NWS) in Springfield, MO, forecasts (for Joplin, MO) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 80 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 3-8 mph.
The NWS in St. Louis, MO, forecasts (for St. Louis, MO) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 81 F. The winds will be from the north at 7-13 mph.
The NWS in Springfield, MO, forecasts (for Joplin, MO) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 75 F. The winds will be from the northeast at 8-10 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 53 F. Winds will be from the northeast at 5-7 mph, becoming calm after midnight.
The visible satellite imagery shows this morning’s cloud cover over Joplin.
The infrared satellite imagery shows a few thicker clouds over southern Missouri this morning. Once we leave Joplin, we head into clearer skies.
The water vapor imagery shows that we will drive through an area with drier air aloft, but the moisture will soon catch up, just like it did yesterday.
The 12Z sounding from Springfield, MO, shows dry air above 800 mb. There was 0.40 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) or Convective Inhibition (CINH) present. There was a large, deep thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 2.9 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 11 kts of low-level shear and 14 kts of deep-layer shear. Shear at all levels was due to a mix of speed and directional changes.
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show warm temperatures, and moderately high humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions), though lower than the last few days. The skies are mostly clear. There are no major frontal boundaries along our travel route this morning, but there is a weak dryline near the Missouri and Illinois border.
The surface pressure chart shows that we are under slightly higher pressure, but there are no strong pressure gradients over our travel route this morning. The RAP shows that the high pressure and the lack of gradients will persist for at least the next six hours.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows that we will pass into a sharp trough by this afternoon.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows that there is no strong vorticity advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows no major pockets of rapidly-rising air along our route today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows some weak Cold Air Advection (CAA) along our entire travel route by 00 Z. Notice how the winds blow across the thermal gradient from cool to warm.
The Precipitation chart shows that rain is unlikely along our travel route today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
I think today will be easy sailing across the midwest, with little chance of precipitation or storms.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD