For the next two weeks, I will be on the road to the east coast. I will give a forecast for my route. Today, I will have a light travel day from Rio Rancho, NM, to Liberal, KS.
Yesterday was hot, cloudy, moderately humid and still. There was only light cumulus clouds in the sky and no precipitation.
This morning has been warm, still and clear. There were only a few high clouds this morning over my backyard:
National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 94 F. The winds will be from the northeast at 5-10 mph, becoming northwest in the afternoon.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Tucumcari) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 88 F. The winds will be from the north at 5 mph, becoming east in the afternoon.
The NWS in Dodge City forecasts (for Liberal, KS) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 86 F. The winds will be from the north at 7-11 mph, becoming east in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 60 F. Winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph.
The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning afternoon thunderstorms for the northeastern highlands and plains of New Mexico. Small hail and gusty winds are possible with these storms.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has also issued a Marginal Risk for a swath of northeastern New Mexico that may impact our travel slightly, depending on conditions. There is less than a 2% chance of tornadoes, but small hail and locally gusty winds are possible.
The visible satellite imagery shows that there are only a few light clouds scattered around the state. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The infrared satellite imagery shows no thick clouds over the state this morning. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The water vapor imagery shows that there is dry air aloft, as compared to last week, though the deepest moisture is along our travel route.
The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a moisture peak at 500 mb. There was 0.69 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was 39 J/kg Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -469 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH) present. There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.8 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 9 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 26 kts of deep-layer shear ( due to a mix of speed and directional changes).
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show warm temperatures, and moderate humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions), though lower than the last few days. The skies are mostly clear, and the still winds. There are no major frontal boundaries clearly defined over the state this morning, though there is a weak dryline running through the eastern tier of counties.
The surface pressure chart shows that there are no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state today. The RAP shows that a thermal low will develop over most of the state today. The pressure will drop, though no major pressure gradients are expected.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows very little flow aloft as we are centered in a broad ridge.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows that there is no strong vorticity advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows no major pockets of rapidly-rising air along our route today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The Precipitation chart shows that the chances of precipitation have decreased considerably, though there is a swath of possible rain along our travel route in New Mexico.
I will be keeping a close eye on the radar and visible satellite imagery en route to Liberal, KS, as there is some chance of a strong thunderstorm to our west.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD