Yesterday was hot, cloudy, moderately humid and still. We didn’t receive any rain, but we did have a beautiful sunset:
This morning has been warm, still and clear. There were no clouds over my backyard this morning:
National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 92 F. The winds will be from the north at 5 mph, becoming south in the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 60 F. Winds will be from the south at 5 mph, becoming west after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 83 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 5 mph, becoming east in the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 55 F. Winds will be from the southeast at 5 mph, becoming west after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 91 F. The winds will be from the northeast at 5 mph, becoming southwest in the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 61 F. Winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph, becoming east after midnight.
The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning afternoon thunderstorms for most of the state. Small hail and gusty winds are possible with these storms.
The visible satellite imagery shows that there are only a few light clouds scattered around the southern and western parts of the state this morning:
The infrared satellite imagery shows no thick clouds over the state this morning. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The water vapor imagery shows that there is a drying trend, as the deep moisture moves out of the state to the east.
The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a damp atmosphere below 500 mb. There was 0.78 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was 29 J/kg Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -306 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH) present. There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.8 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 4 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 22 kts of deep-layer shear ( due to a mix of speed and directional changes).
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show warm temperatures, and moderate humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions), though lower than the last few days. The skies are mostly clear, and the still winds. There are no major frontal boundaries clearly defined over the state this morning, though there is a weak dryline running through the eastern tier of counties.
The surface pressure chart shows that there are no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state today. The RAP shows that a thermal low will develop over the Four Corners region, and will drop our pressure, though no major pressure gradients are expected.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows very little flow aloft as we are centered in a broad ridge. An upper-level low will move out of the southeastern corner of the state into Texas by 00 Z.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows that there is no strong vorticity advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows several pockets of rapidly-rising air over the state this afternoon by 18 Z. The 00Z chart is unavailable at this time.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The Precipitation chart shows that the chances of precipitation have decreased considerably, with rain possible in only a few locations today.
Today will remain sunny and clear for much of the state, clouding up slightly in the evening. Storms will be possible, but unlikely in most areas.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD