This post is incredibly late. I will do better in the future.
Yesterday was hot, cloudy, moderately humid and still. We had a heavy rainstorm to our east, but very little fell on my garden, of course.
This morning has been warm, still and humid, with plenty of cumulus clouds developing vertically.
National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a partly sunny day, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 86 F. The winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 59 F. Winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph, becoming west after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a partly sunny day, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 78 F. The winds will be from the east 10 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 54 F. Winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph, becoming west after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) a partly sunny day, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 85 F. The winds will be from the east at 10 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 59 F. Winds will be from the east at 5-15 mph.
The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning afternoon thunderstorms for most of the state. Small hail and gusty winds are possible with these storms.
The visible satellite imagery shows that the entire state is one big cumulus field, minus a few small pockets of topographic subsidence.
The infrared satellite imagery shows that a few of the cumulus clouds have developed into weak storms. This trend will likely continue throughout the day.
The water vapor imagery shows that there is still some deep moisture, but a broad eddy is bringing drier air aloft to the northern half of the state.
The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a damp atmosphere again today. (Never mind my last few days, where I accidentally wrote “dry” instead of “damp”). There was 0.78 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -311 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH) present. There was a moderate thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.3 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 13 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 9 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to speed changes).
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show warm temperatures, and moderate humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions), though lower than the last few days. The skies are mostly clear, and the winds light. There are no major frontal boundaries clearly defined over the state this morning, though there is a weak dryline running through the eastern third of the state.
The surface pressure chart shows that there are no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state today. The RAP shows that a thermal low will continue to deepen over Arizona, and will drop our pressure slightly, though no major pressure gradients are expected.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows very little flow aloft as we are centered in a broad ridge.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows that there is no strong vorticity advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows several pockets of rapidly-rising air over the state this afternoon by 18 Z. The 00Z chart is unavailable at this time.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The Precipitation chart shows precipitation is possible over most of the state by 00Z.
Today will cloud up and could become rainy with a few thunderstorms. Winds will remain light, outside of storm gusts. It’s looking more and more like monsoon season.
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD