New Mexico Weather: 6/2/17

Yesterday was hot, moderately humid and still.  In the evening, we had some storms nearby, and while we didn’t receive much rain in Rio Rancho, we did catch an outflow boundary, and had some strong winds.

This morning has been mild, still and partly sunny.  There were some disorganized clouds over my backyard.

National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a partly sunny day, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 82 F. The winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a  low temperature of 58 F. Winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming west after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a mostly cloudy day, with a 50% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 76 F. The winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a  low temperature of 53 F. Winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming west after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) a partly sunny day, with a 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 84 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph, becoming west in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a  low temperature of 59 F. Winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph, becoming east after midnight.

The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning afternoon thunderstorms for most of the state.  Small hail and gusty winds are possible with these storms.

The visible satellite imagery shows the partly cloudy skies this morning over most of the state.

The infrared satellite imagery shows only a few light clouds over the state.  These clouds are thin, with low, warm tops.

The water vapor imagery shows that we are under some deeper moisture today, as we will see in the sounding as well.

The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a relatively dry atmosphere over the state this morning.  There was 0.80 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was 171 J/kg of  Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -186 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH) present.  There was no thermal inversion, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.8 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 5 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 6 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show warm temperatures, and high humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions).  The skies are mostly clear, and the winds calm, with quite a few areas of no wind at all.  There are no major frontal boundaries clearly defined over the state this morning.

The surface pressure chart shows that there are no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state today.  The RAP shows that a thermal low will develop in the northern part of the state over the next six hours, as is typical for monsoon season, but no strong pressure gradients are expected.

Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows very little flow aloft as we are centered in a broad ridge.

The 500 mb NAM chart shows that there is no strong vorticity advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The 700 mb NAM chart shows several pockets of rapidly-rising air over the state this afternoon by 18 Z.  The 00Z chart is unavailable at this time.

The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The Precipitation chart shows precipitation is possible over most of the state by 00Z.

Today will cloud up and could become rainy with a few thunderstorms.  Winds will remain light, outside of storm gusts. It’s almost a monsoonal pattern.

Thank you for reading my forecast.

The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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